The 17th edition of the Asia Cup is underway. Bangladesh began their mission with a win over Hong Kong in their opening match, but a defeat against Sri Lanka in their second game has made their path to the Super Four much more difficult.
Tomorrow, Bangladesh will face Afghanistan—a match that is practically an “unofficial final” for the Tigers. A defeat there would mean an early exit from the tournament at the group stage.
The loss to Sri Lanka has not only dented Bangladesh’s morale but also complicated their net run rate situation. Sri Lanka sealed victory with 32 balls to spare, leaving Bangladesh in a tricky equation. However, all hope is not lost. If certain conditions align, Bangladesh can still qualify for the last four.
It’s not just about winning—the net run rate equation also comes into play.
Scenario 1: If Bangladesh beat Afghanistan, their hopes stay alive. They will then have 4 points and must wait for the outcome of the Afghanistan–Sri Lanka match.
If Afghanistan lose to Sri Lanka as well, they finish with just 2 points while Bangladesh will have 4, ensuring Bangladesh’s place in the Super Four without the need for net run rate.
Scenario 2: If Afghanistan defeat Sri Lanka, they too will have the same number of points as Bangladesh. In that case, net run rate becomes the deciding factor, which will depend on how big a margin Bangladesh manage against Afghanistan.
Scenario 3: If Sri Lanka lose to Afghanistan, another possibility opens up for Bangladesh—Sri Lanka would then need to lose against Hong Kong as well. If that happens, both Sri Lanka and Hong Kong will remain on 2 points, while Bangladesh qualify with 4. However, this scenario is highly unlikely in reality.
Scenario 4: If Sri Lanka lose to Afghanistan but beat Hong Kong, Bangladesh’s qualification will again depend on net run rate. The key factor will be the margin by which Bangladesh defeat Afghanistan.
